Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Naked Economics

Here's an eye-opening summary of where we're at, economically speaking. Warning: It's not the steady drone of msm sugar-coating we normally hear. Mostly this is stuff no one is acknowledging. Number 14 especially blew me away, since I'm unemployed now myself. Yikes.

 Ian Welsh: Some basics on the economy

 1) The majority of new jobs are bad.

2) The economy has still not recovered all lost jobs, either in absolute #s or as a percentage of the population,

3) so there are fewer jobs, and what new jobs have been created are worse. They pay worse.

4) The upper middle class job market has recovered, which is why those folks are no longer panicking and are telling you that the economy isn’t so bad as all that.

5) The failure to force the rich to take their losses and to break up the banks means that the same people who caused the 2007/8 financial crisis still control the economy and the government.

6) Failure to restructure the economy to get off oil and over to an electrical economy means that the US (and the world) are caught in the oil price dilemma: any real recovery increases oil price and will be derailed by those high oil prices.

7) Europe, ex. Germany, is in recession.

8 ) The developed world is in depression, it never left depression.  During depressions there are recoveries (such as they are) and recessions, but the overall economy is in depression.

9) China’s economy is slowing down.  Since China is the main engine of the world economy, followed by the US, this is really bad.  If it goes into an actual recession, bend over and kiss your butt goodbye.

10) Austerity is a means by which the rich can buy up assets which are not normally on the market for cheap.

11) The wealth of the rich and major corporations has recovered and in many countries exceeded its prior highs. They are doing fine. Austerity is not hurting them. They control your politicians.  The depression will not end until it is in their interest for it to do so, or their wealth and power is broken.

12) The US play is as follows: Frack. Frack some more. Frack even more. They are trying the Reagan play, temporize while new supplies of hydrocarbons come on line.  Their bet is that they’ll get another boom out of that.  If they’re right, it’ll be a lousy boom.  If they’re wrong (and the Saudis think they are, and the Saudis have been eating their lunch since 2001) then you won’t even get that.  Either way, though, they’ll devastate the environment, by which I mean the water you drink and grow crops with.

13) For people earning less than about 80K, the economy never really recovered.

14) If you’re out of work more than 2 months your odds of getting another job drop through the floor. If you do get one, odds are it will pay much less than your previous job. Read more here.


Blogger Jefferson's Guardian said...

"It will most likely break down in 2020/24, which is when the demographics turn."

These dates are exactly agreeable with the "climatic point" of the crisis stage, as per Strauss's and Howe's The Fourth Turning.

Wouldn't you say?

6:20 PM  
Blogger Anna Van Z said...

Personally, I'm thinking it will be sooner that that...

7:03 PM  

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